Busting the Myth that Climate Change is Increasing the Strength and Frequency of Hurricanes.

There is a notion among Warmegedinists that climate change is increasing the strength or frequency of hurricanes. They say Hurricanes have become stronger worldwide during the past four decades, an analysis of observational data shows, supporting what theory and computer models have long suggested: climate change is making these storms more intense and destructive.

Well lets look at the actual evedence shall we.

Hurricanes are Not Getting Worse and here is the evidence that they are not.

There has been no increase in hurricanes as the planet has modestly warmed. since the end of the Little Ice Age, around 1850.

Even the U.N. IPCC agrees, finding no increase in the frequency or severity of hurricanes.

  • The United States recently went through its longest period in recorded history without a major hurricane strike.
  • The United States recently experienced its fewest total hurricanes in any eight-year period.
  • Florida, America’s most hurricane-prone state, recently underwent its longest period in recorded history without any hurricanes

Devastating hurricanes occurred long before the invention of SUVs and coal-fired power plants. And hurricane activity shows little or no impact from global warming. Even the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2018 “Interim Report” observes there is “only low confidence for the attribution of any detectable changes in tropical cyclone activity to anthropogenic influences.” The U.N. observation reflects hurricane and tropical storm data in Figure 1, below.

Figure 1: This figure shows global hurricane and tropical cyclone activity are not increasing. Source: Global Tropical Cyclone Activity, Dr. Ryan N. Maue, accessed March 3, 2020, http://climatlas.com/tropical/frequency_12months.png.

U.S. Impacts: Hurricane impacts on the United States are at an all-time low. The United States recently went more than a decade (2005 through 2017) without a major hurricane measuring Category 3 or higher, which is the longest such period in recorded history. The United States also recently experienced the fewest number of hurricane strikes in any eight-year period (2009 through 2017) in recorded history. Additionally, America’s most vulnerable state, Florida, recently concluded an 11-year period (2005 through 2016) without a landfalling hurricane of any size — the longest such period in recorded history. The Gulf of Mexico also recently) benefited from its longest hurricane-free period in recorded history (2013 through 2016).

More Wind Shear Negates Warmer Oceans: Whenever a hurricane forms, global warming activists claim modestly warmer global ocean temperatures are allegedly “supercharging” the storms. However, warm ocean water is just one factor in the formation and intensification of hurricanes. Wind shear inhibits strong storms from forming and rips apart storms that have already formed. Scientists have learned that global warming is likely to cause more wind shear in places where hurricanes form and intensify. That is one reason why even the U.N. IPCC admits there has been no increase in the frequency or severity of hurricanes. It is misleading to discuss one factor in hurricane formation (warmer oceans) while failing to discuss an equally important factor (wind shear) that diminishes hurricane formation and intensification.

Finally, it would require several hundred years of detailed hurricane data both before and after 1850 to accurately determine whether the natural trends and fluctuations of hurricane activity have been altered by the 1.3 parts per ten thousand increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide since 1850. This is the period during which human activity contributed a portion of the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere, most of which occurred since 1940. Without such sufficient data, no scientific comparisons and conclusions concerning the impact of the tiny increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere would be statistically meaningful.

So when any silly Warmegedinist or Extinction Rebellion activist who does not know their backside from their elbow begins to tell you that it’s fossil fuels that are causing all these hurricanes like the one that has just hit New York to can point them all in the direction of evidence that shows them that they don't know what they are talking about.

What is life without a little controversy in it? Quite boring and sterile would be my answer.